Validated Model Predicts Sudden Cardiac Death Risk

Researchers have developed and validated a generalizable risk score that can provide absolute risk estimates for sudden cardiac death (SCD), according to a recent study.

Most instances of sudden cardiac death occur in the general population among individuals without prior history of clinical heart disease. For this reason, researchers sought to develop a predictive model of SCD.
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Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (n=13,677) and the Cardiovascular Health Study (n=4207), the researchers evaluated demographic, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic measures in participants free of cardiovascular disease at baseline.

Overall, there were 345 adjudicated SCD events. The researchers developed a 10-year risk model of SCD, then compared the prediction of SCD to non-SCD and all-cause mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts.

They identified 12 independent risk factors for SCD, including age, male sex, African American race, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensives, diabetes, serum potassium, serum albumin, HDL cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and QTc interval.

Over a 10-year follow-up period, a model using these factors showed good to excellent prediction potential for SCD risk.

“Our study is the first to derive and validate a generalizable risk score that provides well-calibrated, absolute risk estimates across different risk strata in an adult population of white and African American individuals without a clinical diagnosis of cardiovascular disease,” the researchers concluded.

—Michael Potts

Reference:

Deo R, Norby FL, Katz R, et al. Development and validation of a sudden cardiac death prediction model for the general population [published online August 19, 2016]. Circulation. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.116.023042