CKD Risk Estimates Higher Than Expected

Over 50% of US adults ages 30 to 64 are at risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) during their lifetime, according to a recent study.

These numbers are markedly higher than the estimate of 1 in 3 Americans put forth by the National Kidney Foundation.

“We were surprised by the high probability of developing CKD during a lifetime,” said Thomas Hoerger, PhD, an author of the study, and a health economist and senior fellow at RTI International. ¹
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“It’s higher than most diseases that immediately jump to mind, and while the likelihood of chronic kidney disease progressing to complete kidney failure is much lower, CKD itself has been linked to a number of comorbidities and adverse health outcomes,” he said. ¹

For the study, researchers used a simulation model that followed individuals from their current age through death or until age 90 years.  The progression and manifestation of CKD were based on annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates dependent on risk and age factors.

The study showed a residual lifetime incidence of CKD at 54%, 52%, and 42% for US adults aged 30 to 49 years, 50 to 64, and 65 or older, respectively, who exhibited no CKD at baseline. ^1,2

Further, by 2020, researchers projected rates of CKD to rise from 13.2% (currently) to 14.4%, and to 16.7% by 2030.¹

According to researchers, CKD progression could be slowed through medications and lifestyle changes. For that reason, the National Kidney Foundation promotes annual kidney screenings among those with diabetes, high blood pressure, those over the age of 60 years, and a family history of kidney failure. ¹

The investigators noted that they hope their model will help policy makers become more aware of the prevalence of chronic kidney disease as a growing medical problem. ¹

The complete study is published in the November issue of the American Journal of Kidney Diseases.

-Michelle Canales Butcher

References:

1. National Kidney Foundation. Over 50 percent of people currently age 30-49 could develop CKD in their lifetime. March 1, 2015. www.kidney.org/news/kidney-disease-on-the-rise. Accessed March 2, 2015.

2. Hoerger TJ, Simpson SA, Yarnoff BO, et al. The future burden of CKD in the United States: a simulation model for the CDC CKD initiative. AJKD. 2015 November [epub ahead of print] doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1053/j.ajkd.2014.09.023.