mortality

Sharp Decline in COVID-19 Mortality in Hospitalized Patients

Two peer-reviewed studies, one conducted in the United States and the other in England, showed a sharp decline in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. This change was demonstrated across all patient groups, regardless of age or underlying condition.

The first study,1 conducted at a single health system in New York between May and August 2020, found an 18% decline in mortality of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 since the pandemic began. At the beginning of the pandemic, patients had a 25.6% chance of dying compared with the 7.6% chance of dying now.

Compared with hospitalizations at the beginning of the pandemic, patients hospitalized with COVID-19 now tend to be younger, have fewer comorbidities, and are less frail than people hospitalized earlier in the pandemic.

To account for this shift, the study authors adjusted for factors including age and comorbidities (such as diabetes) to ensure that the decline in hospitalized deaths was not due to younger and healthier patients getting diagnosed. Once these factors were adjusted for, the results still showed a sharp decline in death rates amongst all patient groups.

In the United Kingdom, Bilal Mateen and colleagues, conducted research2 of 21,000 hospitalized cases. This study also reflected a sharp decline in COVID-19-related deaths. The unadjusted decline in death rate was about 20% from the highest death rate at the beginning of the pandemic. Mateen’s findings echoed the US study’s results; the declines are consistent across all age groups, underlying conditions, and racial groups.

Despite the promising findings regarding a steep decline in mortality of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, it should not change current public health practices. There is no cure for COVID-19, there are still serious long-term consequences of the disease, and many people will still die from the disease.

—Audrey Amos, PharmD

References:

  1. Horowitz LI, Jones SA, Cerfolio RJ, et al. Trends in COVID-19 risk-adjusted mortality rates. J Hosp Med. Published online October 23, 2020. https://doi.org/10.12788/jhm.3552
  2. Dennis J, McGovern A, Vollmer S, Mateen BA. Improving COVID-19 critical care mortality over time in England: A national cohort study, March to June 2020. Crit Care Med. Published online October 26, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1097/ccm.0000000000004747